Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 1.956440 2.065765 2.180322 2.309728 2.452348 2.605317 2.782569
2025-06-29 1.770058 1.918102 2.080198 2.272273 2.495562 2.749363 3.063223
2025-07-06 1.639534 1.806619 1.994894 2.225308 2.503323 2.832899 3.261033
2025-07-13 1.579338 1.765640 1.980910 2.252084 2.590667 3.008354 3.577852
2025-07-20 1.535236 1.737803 1.977028 2.286194 2.684383 3.194215 3.922655
2025-07-27 1.499103 1.715613 1.976319 2.321156 2.778250 3.384572 4.291720
2025-08-03 1.446112 1.668891 1.941183 2.307940 2.805350 3.484448 4.540599
2025-08-10 1.398446 1.625832 1.907458 2.293012 2.826950 3.575728 4.784167
2025-08-17 1.352355 1.582274 1.870320 2.270330 2.834663 3.645503 4.999883
2025-08-24 1.309994 1.541440 1.834400 2.246532 2.837960 3.707206 5.207704
2025-08-31 1.281272 1.516817 1.818276 2.248352 2.877185 3.825088 5.524183
2025-09-07 1.259812 1.500580 1.812201 2.263215 2.935617 3.976733 5.921107
2025-09-14 1.221371 1.461091 1.773828 2.231133 2.922570 4.014455 6.117736
2025-09-21 1.184412 1.422381 1.735060 2.196561 2.903383 4.040146 6.295056
2025-09-28 1.146348 1.380971 1.691037 2.152159 2.865887 4.031267 6.400937
2025-10-05 1.134426 1.374281 1.694573 2.177490 2.939548 4.219426 6.948060
2025-10-12 1.125519 1.371209 1.702764 2.209742 3.025984 4.438415 7.610091
2025-10-19 1.117320 1.368695 1.711420 2.242783 3.115602 4.672633 8.366609
2025-10-26 1.095544 1.346663 1.691271 2.230295 3.127231 4.759632 8.779714
2025-11-02 1.074406 1.324909 1.670750 2.216187 3.134930 4.839294 9.193046
2025-11-09 1.052136 1.300974 1.646284 2.194745 3.128351 4.889459 9.537974
2025-11-16 1.030584 1.277514 1.621803 2.172239 3.118461 4.931751 9.871941
2025-11-23 1.016899 1.264825 1.612736 2.173960 3.151875 5.067607 10.529171